A Simple Noninvasive Score Based on Routine Parameters can Predict Liver Cirrhosis in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C

Liver biopsy has remained the gold standard for the diagnosis of chronic hepatitis C; even though, it has a low but non-negligible rate of both false negative and complications. Several authors have proposed noninvasive tools to diagnose cirrhosis. But none of them showed complete concordance with liver biopsy. To devise a score based on noninvasive routine parameters that discriminate between patients with a high risk, and those with a low risk of cirrhosis among patients with chronic hepatitis C without performing liver biopsy, and to compare this score with other ones using routine parameters devoted to this aim. We reviewed the charts of patients with chronic hepatitis C who performed a liver biopsy between 2000 and 2004. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent predictors of cirrhosis. An independent group of patients with chronic hepatitis C admitted for a liver biopsy between 2007 and 2012 constituted the validation set. We enrolled 249 patients who had complete laboratoristic data, and sufficient liver tissue for fibrosis staging. Age, AST, prothrombin activity, and platelets were identified as independent predictors of histological cirrhosis. We categorized these variables, and devised a novel score called CISCUN (Cirrhosis Score University of Naples), giving one point to each of the following predictors: age > 40 years; AST > 2 upper normal values; platelet count < 160.000/mmc; prothrombin activity < 100%. Cirrhosis rate was 2.9% for the 103 patients with a CISCUN = 0 or 1, 23.4% for the 124 patients with a CISCUN of 2 or 3, and 86.4% for the 22 patients with a CISCUN = 4. These results were confirmed in the independent validation group of 285 patients with similar characteristics. Patients with chronic hepatitis C and with a CISCUN ≤ 1 had a very low rate of cirrhosis while those with a CISCUN = 4 had a high risk of cirrhosis. Patients with CISCUN = 2 or 3 had an intermediate rate of cirrhosis, and therefore needed to perform a liver biopsy to receive a reliable diagnosis.