A SIMPLE NONINVASIVE SCORE PREDICTS GASTROESOPHAGEAL VARICES IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC VIRAL HEPATITIS.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend upper endoscopic screening of cirrhotic patients for gastroesophageal varices. Cirrhosis is not always distinguishable from chronic hepatitis. GOALS: To identify low-risk patients who can be spared upper endoscopy irrespective of a diagnosis of cirrhosis. STUDY: We evaluated 13 nonendoscopic variables as predictors of esophagogastric varices in 254 patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C-related chronic liver disease who underwent upper endoscopy. RESULTS: Any size varices occurred in 30.3% (77/254), and large varices in 12.2% of patients (31/254). Age >50 years [odds ratio (OR): 11.29; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.33-54.67], platelet count <150,000/mmc (OR: 4.40; 95% CI: 1.85-10.45), albumin <3.6 g/dL (OR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.31-6.79), and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio >1 (OR: 2.83; 95% CI: 1.26-6.34) independently predicted varices by logistic regression. Using a score based on age >50 years, platelets <150,000/mmc, and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio >1 (1 point/predictor), only 3.2% of patients with a score <2 had varices, all small. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with chronic viral hepatitis and a score <2 need not undergo upper endoscopy, as they are unlikely to have large varices. Because about 50% of our patients had this score, 50% of upper endoscopies may be safely avoided.