Studying Fiscal Policy and the Italian Pre-defined Tax Scheme: Quantum Methodological Insights

Summary of Background Data Public decisions, particularly in the realm of taxation, are inherently complex and necessitate the engagement of specialised professionals who serve as intermediaries between taxpayers and Tax Authority. Consequently, taxation can be seen as a multifaceted system that includes not only the rules governing taxes, but also public decision-makers and taxpayers, together with the broader economic system that connects them together. To effectively investigate the decision-making that emerge from these interactions, it is crucial to employ sophisticated methods of research. Objectives This paper examines the tax reform adopted by the Italian Government in 2023-2024. The reform aims to incentivize tax compliance by introducing policy tools that significantly alter the relationship between the Revenue Agency and taxpayers. There has been, at a global level, a shift from a criminological and repressive approach to a collaborative and preventive one [1]. This paper seeks to illustrate that the complexity involved in taxpayers’ decisions, and resulting behaviours, requires advanced analysis techniques. Consequently, the primary objective of this paper is to address these scientifical issues using the paradigms and formalism utilized in Quantum Mechanics. Methods The paper thoroughly examines a recent Italian policy tool known as the Biennial Preventive Arrangement (BPA) by taxpayers and the Revenue Agency. Despite its various benefits, BPA has received a poor response from taxpayers. We provide a interpretation of this paradoxical outcome using Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) [2]. Results By employing QDT, we have gained valuable insights into the reasons behind the Italian government’s limited success with the previously mentioned fiscal measure. Our analysis reveals a coherent interpretation of the factors that have contributed to this result. Discussion/Conclusions According to [3], we conceptualise taxation as an implicit contractual relationship, highlighting that it is not merely a financial obligation but also encompasses cognitive connections and a sense of loyalty between the government and citizens. This relationship involves various duties that individuals have toward the State, such as paying taxes, and corresponding taxpayers’ rights, including representation and accountability from their government. Through this lens, taxation can be seen as a dynamic interaction shaped by mutual responsibilities and expectations, reflecting the deeper bonds that tie individuals to the society in which they live. The analysis presented in the paper suggests that taxation is a complex system and that the taxpayers’ decisions can be effectively analysed by adopting the paradigm of quantum mechanics and its related mathematical formalism.