Managing sea uncertainty beyond rationality: informal practices in the Southern Mediterranean. The case study of Procida in the 19th century

In this paper we deal with uncertainty in the sea and in maritime navigation. We investigate the case of a small maritime community, the island of Procida, over the 19th century, focusing on tools and practices for managing uncertainty and risk of seafarers. The point is: how did the community face the unpredictable unknown unknowns beyond the known unknowns? We analyse informal sharing practices directly related to uncertainty perception, and if they survive the evolution of efficient responses. It is a first endeavour to understand how the informal rules of the local maritime community resist the evolution of institutional responses. This research responds to the fundamental purpose of the funded projects we are developing which intend to explore responses to risk and uncertainty as culturally specific rather than universal. The vision of uncertainty and risk primarily through economic/neo-institutional frameworks is quite restrictive. We rather advocate for more holistic approaches that incorporate cultural, religious, material, and social perspectives. Rather than viewing institutional evolution (i.e. insurance) as a bottom-up process toward more efficient arrangements for calculable probabilities, we inform our approach to a complexity perspective for understanding maritime uncertainty management in oure case study. Rather than assuming market-based risk instruments necessarily as a more “advanced” stage of development compared to religious practices or community-based arrangements, we examine how different responses complemented each other in a complex adaptive system.