Prediction of placenta accreta spectrum in patients with placenta previa using a clinical, US and MRI combined model: A retrospective study with external validation

Purpose: To build and validate a predictive model of placental accreta spectrum (PAS) in patients with placenta previa (PP) combining clinical risk factors (CRF) with US and MRI signs. Method: Our retrospective study included patients with PP from two institutions. All patients underwent US and MRI examinations for suspicion of PAS. CRF consisting of maternal age, cesarean section number, smoking and hypertension were retrieved. US and MRI signs suggestive of PAS were evaluated. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify CRF and/or US and MRI signs associated with PAS considering histology as the reference standard. A nomogram was created using significant CRF and imaging signs at multivariate analysis, and its diagnostic accuracy was measured using the area under the binomial ROC curve (AUC), and the cut-off point was determined by Youden's J statistic. Results: A total of 171 patients were enrolled from two institutions. Independent predictors of PAS included in the nomogram were: 1) smoking and number of previous CS among CRF; 2) loss of the retroplacental clear space at US; 3) intraplacental dark bands, focal interruption of the myometrial border and placental bulging at MRI. A PAS-prediction nomogram was built including these parameters and an optimal cut-off of 14.5 points was identified, showing the highest sensitivity (91%) and specificity (88%) with an AUC value of 0.95 (AUC of 0.80 in the external validation cohort). Conclusion: A nomogram-based model combining CRF with US and MRI signs might help to predict PAS in PP patients, with MRI contributing more than US as imaging evaluation.