We describe a model-based approach to forecast seismic risk during an earthquake sequence, emphasizing building damage and human injuries. This approach, which could also be used to forecast financial losses, incorporates several models of varying complexity, but it is intuitive and its output can be succinctly described with simple mathematics. We describe two applications of this approach-one in the wake of the destructive 2009 L'Aquila, Italy earthquake, and another with a hypothetical M(w)6.6 earthquake in Basel, Switzerland. We discuss the challenges of short-term seismic risk forecasting and suggest potential improvements.
Forecasting Seismic Risk as an Earthquake Sequence Happens / Douglas Zechar, J.; Herrmann, Marcus; van Stiphout, Thomas; Wiemer, Stefan. - (2014), pp. 167-182. [10.1016/b978-0-12-394848-9.00007-9]
Forecasting Seismic Risk as an Earthquake Sequence Happens
Marcus HerrmannSecondo
;
2014
Abstract
We describe a model-based approach to forecast seismic risk during an earthquake sequence, emphasizing building damage and human injuries. This approach, which could also be used to forecast financial losses, incorporates several models of varying complexity, but it is intuitive and its output can be succinctly described with simple mathematics. We describe two applications of this approach-one in the wake of the destructive 2009 L'Aquila, Italy earthquake, and another with a hypothetical M(w)6.6 earthquake in Basel, Switzerland. We discuss the challenges of short-term seismic risk forecasting and suggest potential improvements.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
