Predicting Failure Probability in Industry 4.0 Production Systems: A Workload-Based Prognostic Model for Maintenance Planning

Maintenance of equipment is a crucial issue in almost all industrial sectors as it impacts the quality, safety, and productivity of any manufacturing system. Additionally, frequent production rescheduling due to unplanned and unintended interruptions can be very time consuming, especially in the case of centrally controlled systems. Therefore, the ability to estimate the likelihood that a monitored machine will successfully complete a predefined workload, taking into account both historical data from the machine’s sensors and the impending workload, may be essential in supporting a new approach to scheduling activities in an Industry 4.0 production system. This study proposes a novel approach for integrating machine workload information into a well-established PHM algorithm for Industry 4.0, with the aim of improving maintenance strategies in the manufacturing process. The proposed approach utilises a logistic regression model to assess the health condition of equipment and a neural network computational model to estimate its failure probability according to the scheduled workloads. Results from a prototypal case study showed that this approach leads to an improvement in the prediction of the likelihood of completing a scheduled job, resulting in improved autonomy of CPSs in accepting or declining scheduled jobs based on their forecasted health state, and a reduction in maintenance costs while maximising the utilisation of production resources. In conclusion, this study is beneficial for the present research community as it extends the traditional condition-based maintenance diagnostic approach by introducing prognostic capabilities at the plant shop floor, fully leveraging the key enabling technologies of Industry 4.0.