This communication studies the dynamics of fertility in 180 countries in the period 1950 2015 and investigates the determinants of the onset of fertility transitions. We nd evidence of convergence in three groups of countries, and distinguish the trans- itioning countries from those not transitioning. The estimation of the year of onset of the fertility transition is followed by an econometric analysis of the causes of this event. Instrumental-variable estimates show that increasing female education and reduced infant mortality are important determinants of fertility decline, while per-capita GDP has probably worked in the opposite direction. These results are con rmed by the application of Lewbels (2012) methods where identi cation is based on heteroskedasticity.
Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes / Papagni, Erasmo. - (2018). (Intervento presentato al convegno International Conference on Globalization and Development tenutosi a University of Goettingen, Goettingen Germany nel 3-4 May 2018).
Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes
PAPAGNI ERASMO
Primo
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
2018
Abstract
This communication studies the dynamics of fertility in 180 countries in the period 1950 2015 and investigates the determinants of the onset of fertility transitions. We nd evidence of convergence in three groups of countries, and distinguish the trans- itioning countries from those not transitioning. The estimation of the year of onset of the fertility transition is followed by an econometric analysis of the causes of this event. Instrumental-variable estimates show that increasing female education and reduced infant mortality are important determinants of fertility decline, while per-capita GDP has probably worked in the opposite direction. These results are con rmed by the application of Lewbels (2012) methods where identi cation is based on heteroskedasticity.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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