A mathematical model is proposed to assess the effects of a vaccine on the time evolution of a coronavirus outbreak. The model has the basic structure of SIRI compartments (susceptible–infectious–recovered–infectious) and is implemented by taking into account of the behavioral changes of individuals in response to the available information on the status of the disease in the community. We found that the cumulative incidence may be significantly reduced when the information coverage is high enough and/or the information delay is short, especially when the reinfection rate is high enough to sustain the presence of the disease in the community. This analysis is inspired by the ongoing outbreak of a respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19.
Effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on coronavirus outbreak: insights from a SIRI model / Buonomo, B.. - In: RICERCHE DI MATEMATICA. - ISSN 0035-5038. - 69:2(2020), pp. 483-499. [10.1007/s11587-020-00506-8]
Effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on coronavirus outbreak: insights from a SIRI model
Buonomo B.
2020
Abstract
A mathematical model is proposed to assess the effects of a vaccine on the time evolution of a coronavirus outbreak. The model has the basic structure of SIRI compartments (susceptible–infectious–recovered–infectious) and is implemented by taking into account of the behavioral changes of individuals in response to the available information on the status of the disease in the community. We found that the cumulative incidence may be significantly reduced when the information coverage is high enough and/or the information delay is short, especially when the reinfection rate is high enough to sustain the presence of the disease in the community. This analysis is inspired by the ongoing outbreak of a respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
