Estimating the size of the loan sharking market in Italy

In the current economic crisis, the risk is so high that entrepreneurs, commercial activities and even families may turn to the illegal market to obtain liquidity. This article proposes an estimate of the size of the usury credit market in Italy. The estimate is based on the assumption, provided by Guiso1, that before coming to a moneylender the borrower seeks to obtain credit through official channels. The results of our estimates confirm the seriousness of the problem, but provide much lower data than those reported periodically by the media. It is estimated that 372,000 economic activities may have been potentially involved in the usury market in 2012. The volume of loans disbursed in the illegal market would have amounted to €18 billion. The profits of loan sharks would be between a minimum of €3 billion and a maximum of about €6.1 billion.