An Integrated Choice Model for the Evaluation of Urban Sustainable Renewal Scenarios

The need for renewal of disused urban area is widespread in many context of south Italy where the lack of public funds make difficult the management and maintenance of sites that often have considerable historical and architecture values. The choice of functions that can represent elements of attraction for the economic and social regeneration of these disused sites is a complex problem, given the multiplicity of interests involved and the uncertain factor determined by the non-typical conditions of real estate market, both from the demand and the supply side. In the present paper we propose to implement a choice model, based on the integration of multicriteria analysis and random utility model (referred to McFadden theory), able to support a participatory decision process of selecting alternative scenarios of requalification of an urban disused area located in a small village near the city of Naples, in the south of Italy. The positive results obtained show that the model proposed can be a useful decision support tool in environments characterized by high complexity, where the objective is precisely to highlight the elements that influence the dynamics of choice for building shared “bottom up” development strategies.