Cellular automaton simulations of the temporal pattern of activity of a volcano with an application to Vesuvius activity between 1631 and 1944

We show the results of simulations of basaltic strato-volcano activity by using a cellular automaton model where magma is allowed to rise through self-organized crack networks. Magma rises toward the surface by filling connected paths of fractures until the magma’s density is less than, or equal to that of the surrounding rocks. We simulate the temporal evolution of such pathway of dikes which magma may eventually utilize to reach the surface with the occurrence of an eruption. Magma degassing is also taken into account by means of the relationship between the pressure-controlled water solubility and the lithostatic pressure. We study the statistical properties of the automaton by varying the model parameters and, in particular, the thickness of the uppermost rock layer, which controls the buoyancy rate of magma rise because of its low value of density. An application of the model to the statistics of the eruptive activity of the Somma-Vesuvius volcano for the 1631-1944 period is discussed.