Analysis of the interaction between travel demand and rail capacity constraints

In urban contexts, the adoption of policies to promote the use of public transport systems represents a useful tool for decision-makers to reduce the environmental impact of private car use. Especially in high-density contexts most travel demand can be satisfied efficiently by means of high-quality rail systems. However, in the event of breakdowns, since faulty trains cannot usually be overtaken and their removal could pose extreme difficulties especially in metropolitan systems with two separate tunnels, re-establishing the regular service could involve inconveniently long travel times. Hence emergency management has to take into account effects on travel demand. In this framework, we analyse such effects for different levels of degraded services in order to define the best strategy to adopt to minimise user discomfort. We extend ideas proposed elsewhere in the literature by introducing capacity constraints of rail vehicles in order to provide more realistic simulated effects. Finally, we describe the application of the proposed approach in the case of the Naples metro system.