Geoeconomic Realignment and Strategic Agency in a Fragmented Mediterranean

This chapter explores the evolving geoeconomic landscape of the Mediterranean, highlighting the growing disconnect between economic fundamentals and geopolitical influence. While traditional economic powers along the Northern shore face stagnation due to demographic decline and structural rigidities, several Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries are leveraging strategic assets, such as energy resources, infrastructure networks and labour mobility, to expand their regional role despite internal vulnerabilities. Through a comparative analysis of macroeconomic performance, demographic asymmetries and fiscal fragility, the chapter reveals how economic tools have become central to both constraining and projecting power. It distinguishes between fragile economies whose geopolitical agency is curtailed by debt and inflation, and «strategic economies» that use economic instruments to extend influence beyond their borders. The chapter argues that the Mediterranean is undergoing a multipolar realignment in which ports, pipelines and migration routes matter as much as military alliances, and where geoeconomics functions as the primary grammar of influence in an era of constrained sovereignty and global fragmentation.