Mapping Twin Transitions in Regional Innovation Systems: a Configurational Approach

Twin transition has become a structural priority in European regional policy. Yet, despite ambitious initiatives such as NextGenerationEU and the 2021–2027 Cohesion Policy, we still lack a clear understanding of how it un-folds across different regional contexts —particularly given persistent dispari-ties in structural capacity and institutional agency. This paper addresses this gap by developing a configurational framework that links regional industrial path development to achievements in the twin transition domain. The framework is grounded in a systematic review of empirical case studies, which allows us to derive a set of structural and institutional causal conditions. These conditions are then operationalized and tested through fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Italian NUTS-2 regions. The results show that no single factor is necessary; rather, distinct combinations of conditions foster regional specializa-tion in twin transition domain. Moreover, the findings indicate that twin transi-tion is not driven by a single dominant path, but can be achieved through multi-ple configurations of path development. Conceptually, the study advances the operationalization of path development; methodologically, it demonstrates the value of configurational approaches for analyzing regional transformation and offers a scalable diagnostic tool for place-based strategies.