Public Decisions and Organisational Resilience in Criminal Ecosystems: A Novel Ecologically-based Composite Indicator

The present study adopts an interdisciplinary approach, integrating social network analysis, systems ecology, and criminological theory to examine the organisational resilience of criminal networks. The objective of the study is twofold. Firstly, it introduces a novel composite indicator of network resilience, grounded in complexity science and ecological theory, and operationalised through three structural properties: Modularity, diversity, and redundancy. The study builds upon the resilience indicator developed initially by Villani et al. (SOCIO-ECON PLAN SCI 65:51-65, 2019), presenting a renewed and updated version that extends the former foundational framework by incorporating ecologically informed dimensions. This refinement enhances the indicator’s capacity to capture both institutional embeddedness and functional heterogeneity. Secondly, the novel indicator is applied to four Italian mafia-type organisations in order to analyse their structures and compare their resulting resilience profiles. Empirical validation, conducted through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Item Response Theory (IRT), and related robustness checks, reveals marked variation in resilience profiles and structural configurations among the observed networks. In comparison with the previous version, the novel indicator enhances theoretical coherence, interpretative clarity, and adaptability across a range of empirical contexts. By visualising and quantifying resilience patterns, the updated composite indicator may serve as a valuable diagnostic tool, with potential applications in early warning systems, targeted policy interventions, and the design of governance architectures resilient to criminal infiltration. Given the contemporary urgency of the topic discussed, the study outlines further avenues for future research and emphasises the need for continued interdisciplinary collaboration to support further refinements and contextual application of the composite resilience indicator.