Multi-risk assessment in transboundary areas: a framework for harmonized evaluation considering seismic and flood risks

Effective disaster risk management would require the analysis and the comparison of relevant risks potentially affecting a territory, also considering possible interactions among them (e.g., cascading effects). Modelling such interactions may be complex, increasing the challenge to perform exhaustive multi-risk assessment. Independent analyses are often performed for the analysis of multiple risks in a given area. However, as usually for the analysis of different risks, different methodologies and different impact metrics are adopted, results of single-risk analyses may be not comparable. The problem of comparability is exacerbated in cross-border areas, where additional challenges in risk analysis arise due to the diversity of databases and risk analysis models in neighboring countries. This paper presents the approach for multi-risk assessment proposed within BORIS project (Cross BOrder RISk assessment for increased prevention and preparedness in Europe). Focusing on seismic and flood risks, this project aims to develop a shared methodology for cross-border multi-risk assessment in Europe. Adopting a single-layer multi-risk approach, each risk is assessed through independent analysis, but the procedures for risk assessment are harmonized in order to ensure their comparability. Also, the issue of transboundary assessment of single risks is addressed. The proposed methodology is applied in two regions in the cross-border area between Italy, Slovenia and Austria, demonstrating the usefulness of the BORIS approach for multi-risk comparison and ranking. Acknowledging the need to improve coordination between neighboring countries, the methodology of the BORIS project also reflects certain compromise solutions that allow its ease application and exportability to other countries.