Abstract This study proposes an alternative approach to measuring excess mortality due to COVID19 pandemics compared to the CEMC method. It investigates changes in biometric dynamics since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 by comparing empirical data from Italian mortality tables between 2011 and 2021 to counterfactual death probabilities derived from two commonly used statistical models, Lee- Carter and Renshaw-Haberman. Estimates are provided for 2019, 2020, and 2021, with an additional estimate for 2020 to 2021. The findings are presented to observe the dynamics of expected deaths over time.
Statistical analysis of COVID19 impact on Italian mortality / Politano, Massimiliano; Franchetti, Girolamo. - (2023), pp. 632-637. (Intervento presentato al convegno 11th International Conference IES 2023 Statistical Methods for Evaluation and Quality: Techniques, Technologies and Trends (T3)) [10.60984/978-88-94593-36-5-IES2023].
Statistical analysis of COVID19 impact on Italian mortality
Politano,Massimiliano
;Girolamo,Franchetti
2023
Abstract
Abstract This study proposes an alternative approach to measuring excess mortality due to COVID19 pandemics compared to the CEMC method. It investigates changes in biometric dynamics since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 by comparing empirical data from Italian mortality tables between 2011 and 2021 to counterfactual death probabilities derived from two commonly used statistical models, Lee- Carter and Renshaw-Haberman. Estimates are provided for 2019, 2020, and 2021, with an additional estimate for 2020 to 2021. The findings are presented to observe the dynamics of expected deaths over time.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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