A theoretically derived probability distribution of scour

Based on recent contributions regarding the treatment of unsteady hydraulic conditions in the state-of-the-art scour literature, theoretically derived probability distribution of bridge scour is introduced. The model has been derived assuming a rectangular hydrograph shape with a given duration, and a random flood peak, following a Gumbel distribution. A model extension for a more complex flood event has also been presented, assuming a synthetic exponential hydrograph shape. The mathematical formulation can be extended to any flood-peak probability distribution. The aim of the paper is to move forward the current approaches adopted for the bridge design, by coupling hydrological, hydraulic, and erosional models, in a mathematical closed form. An example of the application of the proposed distribution has been included with the aim to provide a guidance for the parameters estimation.