Elections in Rome: a case study of political dynamics in The Eternal City

The study of electoral behavior has regained significant interest in recent years within the field of political sociology, driven by reflections on urban transformations and the emergence of protests in disadvantaged areas. In Italy, a growing divergence in electoral behavior has been observed between the well-off middle class residing in central urban areas and the more disadvantaged classes living in marginal areas. Residents of peripheral areas have turned their electoral expectations towards anti-establishment parties, such as the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S), Lega, and Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), highlighting the importance of investigating electoral dynamics and their relationships with territorial geography and urban transformations. This essay examines the political behavior of Roman citizens during local elections, with a particular focus on the correlation between voting for anti-establishment parties, electoral participation, and the economic variables of different city neighborhoods. Unlike culturalist explanations, socio-economic factors centered on the concept of economic insecurity and the growth of inequality have greater explanatory capacity. Using an original dataset, this work analyzes the results of the main formations that took part in the Roman administrative elections of 2021, with a focus on mainstream parties, such as the Partito Democratico (PD) and Azione, and anti-establishment parties, such as the M5S and FdI. By analyzing the electoral geography of the city of Rome, this paper aims to identify the determinants of the vote and investigate whether economic differences among Roman voters influence voting choices and whether disadvantaged voters tend to support anti-establishment political formations.