Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical 'precursor' parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated. © 2011 by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. All rights reserved.
Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: A retrospective analysis (Years 2001-2005) / Brancato, A., Gresta, S., Alparone, S., Andronico, D., Bonforte, A., Caltabiano, T., Cocina, O., Corsaro, R.A., Cristofolini, R., di Grazia, G., Distefano, G., Ferlito, C., Gambino, S., Giammanco, S., Greco, F., Napoli, R., Sandri, L., Selva, J., Tusa, G., Viccaro, M.. - In: ANNALS OF GEOPHYSICS. - ISSN 1593-5213. - 54:5(2011), pp. 642-661. [10.4401/ag-5346]
Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: A retrospective analysis (Years 2001-2005)
Selva J.;
2011
Abstract
Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical 'precursor' parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated. © 2011 by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. All rights reserved.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
