Urban seismic scenario-based risk analysis using empirical fragility curves for Kerend-e-gharb after Mw 7.3, 2017 Iran earthquake

This study provides the seismic scenario-based risk map of the small mountain city of Kerend-e-gharb. It evaluates the existing methods and formulations for the effects of a devastating earthquake using empirical fragility curves. A seismic vulnerability map is developed at the urban block-scale using a Geographic Information System for a variety of steel, reinforced concrete, confined masonry, unreinforced masonry, and adobe residential buildings. The estimated seismic damages are validated by comparing them with the building damages surveyed after the Sarpol-e-zahab earthquake. Moreover, the damages to the population, including the probability of homelessness, death, severe injuries that need immediate hospital treatment, moderate injuries that require hospital treatment, and light injuries, without hospitalization, are assessed. The estimation of debris, and the economic losses deriving from this natural hazard, are also investigated. Finally, the map of the mean damage index is presented. The mean damage index is reduced by the renovation and retrofitting interventions in high damaged buildings, while this index is increased in moderately damaged buildings that are not structurally upgraded. The results of this study are consistent with the earthquake damage distribution. In addition, and even with the reduction in vulnerability of buildings after seismic interventions, some blocks of the northeastern part of the city are still at high seismic risk. The results of this study can be used in seismic crisis management planning to achieve a sustainable city.