I propose a stochastic SIR-Macro model to study the effects of alternative mitigation policies to cope with an epidemic. Lockdowns that force firms to close and that discontinue social activities slow down the progression of the epidemic at the cost of reducing GDP and increasing debt and, on average, decrease mortality. Testing-Tracing-Quarantine policies decrease mortality at a lower cost, but they are effective only if thorough. I find that lockdowns work best in case of a bigger average family size, of a diffused labor market participation and of a bigger average firm size.
Epidemics and Policy: the Dismal Trade-offs / Russo, FRANCESCO FLAVIANO. - In: ECONOMIA POLITICA. - ISSN 1973-820X. - (2022). [10.1007/s40888-022-00279-3]
Epidemics and Policy: the Dismal Trade-offs
Francesco Flaviano Russo
2022
Abstract
I propose a stochastic SIR-Macro model to study the effects of alternative mitigation policies to cope with an epidemic. Lockdowns that force firms to close and that discontinue social activities slow down the progression of the epidemic at the cost of reducing GDP and increasing debt and, on average, decrease mortality. Testing-Tracing-Quarantine policies decrease mortality at a lower cost, but they are effective only if thorough. I find that lockdowns work best in case of a bigger average family size, of a diffused labor market participation and of a bigger average firm size.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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