The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km 2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km 2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km 2 in 2012 (ref.). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction / Schroder, D.; Feltham, D. L.; Flocco, D.; Tsamados, M.. - In: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE. - ISSN 1758-678X. - 4:5(2014), pp. 353-357. [10.1038/nclimate2203]
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction
Flocco D.;
2014
Abstract
The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km 2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km 2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km 2 in 2012 (ref.). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
