Was the European Central Bank able to assure the relaunch of the European project after the weakening of the post-crisis period? To answer this question, this paper presents an empirical analysis connecting citizen trust in the European Union with a variable intended to be a measure of the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank, namely, the interest rate on government bonds extracted from the 1-year maturity yield curve. The dynamic panel technique, applied to nineteen Eurozone countries for the time span of 2004–2018, estimates the presence of a long-run common relationship between the variables despite allowing different short-run adjustment mechanisms. Results are revealed to be not univocal: the easy monetary policy strategy is associated for the whole period with a decline of trust, and therefore, despite its impressiveness, it was not sufficient to relaunch the European Union project. However, when considering the change in strategy of the post-2013 period, it seemed to have contributed to a slight inversion of the decline of trust. These results highlight the importance of non-conventional measures and call for further support from coordinated policy action as a response to the negative shock deriving from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trust in the European Union project and the role of ECB

Liotti, Giorgio
;
Canale, Rosaria Rita
2021

Abstract

Was the European Central Bank able to assure the relaunch of the European project after the weakening of the post-crisis period? To answer this question, this paper presents an empirical analysis connecting citizen trust in the European Union with a variable intended to be a measure of the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank, namely, the interest rate on government bonds extracted from the 1-year maturity yield curve. The dynamic panel technique, applied to nineteen Eurozone countries for the time span of 2004–2018, estimates the presence of a long-run common relationship between the variables despite allowing different short-run adjustment mechanisms. Results are revealed to be not univocal: the easy monetary policy strategy is associated for the whole period with a decline of trust, and therefore, despite its impressiveness, it was not sufficient to relaunch the European Union project. However, when considering the change in strategy of the post-2013 period, it seemed to have contributed to a slight inversion of the decline of trust. These results highlight the importance of non-conventional measures and call for further support from coordinated policy action as a response to the negative shock deriving from the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11588/850280
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