A simplified method to compute , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition =1 corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.
A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number $$R_t$$ using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data / Bonifazi, Gianluca; Lista, Luca; Menasce, Dario; Mezzetto, Mauro; Pedrini, Daniele; Spighi, Roberto; Zoccoli, Antonio. - In: THE EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL PLUS. - ISSN 2190-5444. - 136:4(2021). [10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6]
A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number $$R_t$$ using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
Lista, Luca
;
2021
Abstract
A simplified method to compute , the effective reproduction number, is presented. The method relates the value of to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition =1 corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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