Are energy crops a real opportunity for marginal lands enhancement? Land use change scenarios building in Southern Italy

As result of a strong anthropic pressure, all European landscape is increasingly becoming a complex entity, implying the need for specific management and planning approaches based on a specific knowledge. “Marginal lands” usually present socio-economic and geographic disadvantages, but often are also important environmental and natural reserves. Energy crops cultivation in marginal lands can be considered a useful opportunity for farmers, against the progressive risk of under-utilization or abandonment. The aim of this work is to support land-use and landscape planning to guarantee development opportunities, preserving and enhancing the natural heritage. Inside the study area (an interregional context between Molise and Campania regions - Southern Italy) marginal lands were identified starting from regulatory tools and a spatial multicriteria analysis. Three different scenarios were built: 1) No changes in land use; 2) energy crops cultivation in “fringe areas”, 3) land-use abandonment. The results show about 15% of the study area is identifiable as “Fringe areas”, identified by means of S-MCDA. Results validate the LUC scenarios built by means of S-MCDA approach and highlight the close connection and the utility of integration among ecological indicators, in landscape planning and LUC scenarios building and assessment in the ex-ante evaluation stage.