Ecosystem services as the products of land system dynamics: lessons from a longitudinal study of coupled human–environment systems

Context We address understanding of whole-system and landscape-based approaches to the ecosystem services framework by considering the supply of provisioning services and the dynamics of agricultural land use in Scotland between 1940 and 2016. Objectives To characterise and understand the dynamics of change in provisioning services from agriculture in Scotland over the period 1940–2016. To identify ways in which funds of capitals and flows of inputs and output ecosystem goods are linked to land management practices and policies at a national scale. Methods Data describing agricultural land use, production, financial and energy inputs and outputs, and drivers of change in land use in Scotland are analysed with an accounting framework that links funds of natural, human, physical and financial capital, with flows of goods and services. Flow–fund ratios are used as benchmarks of system performance and dynamics. Results Scotland’s agriculture has modernised since 1940 and become more efficient in conversion of resources, with a consequent increase in delivery of provisioning goods and services. Although the energy ratio, and flow of goods per unit hectare and per unit labour have increased, the inputs necessary to maintain those flows of ecosystem goods are also increasing, even as their relative economic costs decrease. Increases in use of fertiliser suggests that production from the soil, as a natural capital fund, is not being conserved without a large, and increasing, input. Analysis of the complexity of the coupled agricultural land system also suggests that land management rather than biodiversity is a necessary subject for evaluation of provisioning services from agriculture. Understanding of ecosystem services based on accounts that integrate inputs, outputs and flows from funds of natural, human, social, financial and physical capitals, provides a process-based foundation for improved understanding of ecosystem services and human–environmental relationships. Conclusions Adopting an accounting approach for understanding the role of agricultural land use for supply of provisioning services, and particularly examining a long time-series of accounts, enables understanding of land changes and underlying drivers, as well as the contribution of cultural and other aspects of human systems coupled with environment systems. Accounting for ecosystem services using costs as well as benefits, and use of metrics beyond financial benefit, supports debate and evaluation of trade-offs between services and has direct relevance for decision- and policy-making.