A statistical model for voting probabilities

In the last decades, the proportion of voters who express their vote according to their specific needs –and not following some ideology– is increasing, not only in Italy. This circumstance represents a prominent factor for political (in)stability and implies that common surveys where people are asked about their “intentions to vote” should be accurately examined to extract any useful information about political consensus. In fact, these intentions change with time and circumstances fairly often and thus it may be suitable to investigate preferences towards the whole spectrum of political options to acquire more definite evaluations. Thus, distributions of voting probabilities require parametric modelling to infer on the polarization and indifference components of each candidate (party, leader, coalition, etc.). Some empirical evidence seems to support the proposed approach.