Historical land use change and landscape pattern evolution study: a support of landscape development policies in Vesuvio National Park

Historical land use change studies and modelling support the analysis of current land use dynamics and landscape pattern. Historical maps are sources of geographical information and traditionally landscape uses, once geo-referencing accuracy and information reliability have been verified. GIS processing and landscape metrics allow assessing and deepening the land use changes. Vesuvius and surrounding areas are an important Italian landscape, full of historical, geo-morphologic and naturalistic value, with valuable agri-food productions and with very-high population density. Furthermore, the area has a high quality historical cartographic production. The main purpose of the paper is to deepen historical landscape knowledge, from 1817 up to 2009, and to implement the historical analysis framework. Historical cartographies of different time steps (1817, 1875, 1960) were digitized, georeferenced and manually vectorized for map comparison, by means of ArcGIS tools and Kappa statistic algorithms. Finally, landscape pattern changes were calculated through Fragstat metrics. Considering the overall period, only the 50% of the study area did not change: major changes were registered in vineyards and urban areas (-99.6% and +89%, respectively). Landscape mosaics appear more disaggregated (PLADJ and DIVISION metrics) due to different number of patches and their more irregular shape (NP, DP, LSI metrics). The study shows the utility of integrated approaches and tools, starting from historical cartography opportunities, as support for decision maker in land use management and conservation policies, highlighting interrelations between urban, agricultural and natural areas.