Effect of data uncertainty on trihalomethanes prediction in water supply systems using kinetic models

The present work compares the performances of first and second order kinetic models for predicting trihalomethanes (THMs) formation in a real case-study. The kinetic parameters are evaluated through an automatic calibration procedure, in which a least-squared objective function relating measured and computed residual chlorine and THMs concentrations is adopted. The effect of measurements uncertainty on the calibrated parameters and on THMs concentrations predictions are quantified in terms of confidence limits using the First Order Second Moment approach. The study reveals that the performances of the two models are quite similar, but the second order one results less influenced by uncertainty.