This paper experiments an artificial neural networks model with Bayesian approach on a small real estate sample. The output distribution has been calculated operating a numerical integration on the weights space with the Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method (MCHMCM). On the same real estate sample, MCHMCM has been compared with a neural networks model (NNs), traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) and the Penalized Spline Semiparametric Method (PSSM). All four methods have been developed for testing the forecasting capacity and reliability of MCHMCM in the real estate field. The Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method has proved to be the best model with an absolute average percentage error of 6.61%.

Real estate appraisals with Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An application to a central urban area of Naples / Del Giudice, Vincenzo; De Paola, Pierfrancesco; Forte, Fabiana; Manganelli, Benedetto. - In: SUSTAINABILITY. - ISSN 2071-1050. - 9:11(2017). [10.3390/su9112138]

Real estate appraisals with Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An application to a central urban area of Naples

Del Giudice, Vincenzo;De Paola, Pierfrancesco
;
Forte, Fabiana;
2017

Abstract

This paper experiments an artificial neural networks model with Bayesian approach on a small real estate sample. The output distribution has been calculated operating a numerical integration on the weights space with the Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method (MCHMCM). On the same real estate sample, MCHMCM has been compared with a neural networks model (NNs), traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) and the Penalized Spline Semiparametric Method (PSSM). All four methods have been developed for testing the forecasting capacity and reliability of MCHMCM in the real estate field. The Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method has proved to be the best model with an absolute average percentage error of 6.61%.
2017
Real estate appraisals with Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An application to a central urban area of Naples / Del Giudice, Vincenzo; De Paola, Pierfrancesco; Forte, Fabiana; Manganelli, Benedetto. - In: SUSTAINABILITY. - ISSN 2071-1050. - 9:11(2017). [10.3390/su9112138]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11588/714249
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