In countries where best-practice probabilistic hazard studies and seismic monitoring networks are available, there is increasing interest in direct validation of hazard maps. It usually means trying to quantitatively understand whether probabilities estimated via hazard analysis are consistent with observed frequencies of exceedance of ground motion intensity thresholds. Because the exceedance events of interest are typically rare with respect to the time span covered by data from seismic networks, a common approach underlying these studies is to pool observations from different sites. The main reason for this is to collect a sample large enough to convincingly performa statistical analysis. However, this requires accounting for the dependence among the stochastic processes counting exceedances of ground motion intensity measures thresholds at different sites. Neglecting this dependence may lead to potentially fallacious conclusions about inadequateness of probabilistic seismic hazard. This study addresses this issue revisiting a hazard validation exercise for Italy, showing that accounting for this kind of spatial dependence can change the results of formal testing.

The effect of spatial dependence on hazard validation / Iervolino, Iunio; Giorgio, Massimiliano; Cito, Pasquale. - In: GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL. - ISSN 0956-540X. - 209:3(2017), pp. 1363-1368. [10.1093/gji/ggx090]

The effect of spatial dependence on hazard validation

Iervolino, Iunio
;
Giorgio, Massimiliano;Cito, Pasquale
2017

Abstract

In countries where best-practice probabilistic hazard studies and seismic monitoring networks are available, there is increasing interest in direct validation of hazard maps. It usually means trying to quantitatively understand whether probabilities estimated via hazard analysis are consistent with observed frequencies of exceedance of ground motion intensity thresholds. Because the exceedance events of interest are typically rare with respect to the time span covered by data from seismic networks, a common approach underlying these studies is to pool observations from different sites. The main reason for this is to collect a sample large enough to convincingly performa statistical analysis. However, this requires accounting for the dependence among the stochastic processes counting exceedances of ground motion intensity measures thresholds at different sites. Neglecting this dependence may lead to potentially fallacious conclusions about inadequateness of probabilistic seismic hazard. This study addresses this issue revisiting a hazard validation exercise for Italy, showing that accounting for this kind of spatial dependence can change the results of formal testing.
2017
The effect of spatial dependence on hazard validation / Iervolino, Iunio; Giorgio, Massimiliano; Cito, Pasquale. - In: GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL. - ISSN 0956-540X. - 209:3(2017), pp. 1363-1368. [10.1093/gji/ggx090]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11588/710711
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