Natural climate Oscillations & the interpretation of the post-2000 temperature standstill

The period from 2000 to 2017 shows a modest warming trend that clearly diverges from the general circulation model (GCM) simulations after the ENSO effect (e.g. the strong 2015-2016 El Niño peak) is removed from the data. However, the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled this period as the “pause” or “hiatus.” The labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period was the result of unforced internal climatic variability that the computer climate models were claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm. Herein I show that the observed pattern is, on the contrary, the result of specific natural climatic oscillations plus an anthropogenic contribution. In general, I show that the climate system is characterized by specific oscillations (e.g. with periods of about 9.1 y, 10.5 y, 20 y, 60-y plus other secular to millennial oscillations) that are synchronized to specific solar and astronomical oscillations. These oscillations are not reproduced by the IPCC models and imply that astronomical forcings of the climate system have been underestimated or even ignored, and that anthropogenic warming has been significantly overestimated. The semi-empirical climate models proposed in 2011 and 2013 by Scafetta agree far better with the observations and project that the 21st century could be characterized only by a modest warming using the same IPCC emission scenarios.