This article covers the reliability assessment of the hull girder of a crude oil tanker, referring to a scenario in which the ship is exposed to sea loads after a damage to the bottom of the hull has occurred. A number of possible flooding configurations are examined, each one caused by a group of damage cases, characterized by different location and extent. Static loads, wave loads and residual structural resistance are determined for each damage case, with the objective of obtaining a prediction for the probability of the hull girder’s failure. The various damage cases are compared to each other and unconditioned to derive the probability of failure extended to the ship’s life due to a generic bottom damage. A probabilistic Bayesian Network model has been created to deal with these variables and with the dependency relationships existing between them. The results provided by the model are analyzed with the aim of identifying the parameters most influencing the problem. The work is intended to contribute to the development of a more rational treatment of accidental conditions in design structural requirements for ships.
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