The past, present and future of thermophilous Cyperus polystachyos Rottb. (Cyperaceae) on the island of Ischia (southern Italy)

Cyperus polystachyos is a hygrophilous, thermophilous and heliophilous plant with a punctiform distribution in southern Italy, where it is almost exclusively found on Ischia, an island in the Bay of Naples characterized by widespread volcanic hydrothermal activity. This species is a native of tropical and subtropical areas and there is evidence for ancient isolation events in the creation of its current distribution pattern. We have studied the historical literature available for this plant since 1800 and collected temporal and spatial presence data of this species in order to develop a habitat suitability map based on a GIS approach and using a multiple linear regression model. Moreover, we have used univariate and multivariate statistical analysis. The results show the importance of the environmental mosaic around fumaroles to preserve the species; urbanization and geothermal energy use of fumaroles in the past and the combination of abandonment of the typical agricultural system and the natural occurrence of reforestation in the present are the main causes of the decline in the number of populations.