We argue that a process of social interest is a balance of order and randomness, thereby producing a departure from a stationary diffusion process. The strength of this departure effect vanishes if the order to randomness intensity ratio vanishes, and this property allows us to reveal, although in an indirect way, the existence of a finite order to randomness intensity ratio. We aim at detecting this effect. We introduce a method of statistical analysis alternative to the compression procedures, with which the limitations of the traditional Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) approach are bypassed. We prove that this method makes it possible for us to build up a memory detector, which signals the presence of even very weak memory, provided that this is persistent over large time intervals. We apply the analysis to the study of the teen birth phenomenon and we find that the unmarried teen births are a manifestation of a social process with a memory more intense than that of the married teens. We attempt to give a social interpretation of this effect.

The thermodynamics of social process: the teen birth phenomenon / Scafetta, Nicola; Hamilton, P.; Grigolini, P.. - In: FRACTALS-COMPLEX GEOMETRY PATTERNS AND SCALING IN NATURE AND SOCIETY. - ISSN 0218-348X. - 09:(2001), pp. 193-208. [10.1142/S0218348X0100052X]

The thermodynamics of social process: the teen birth phenomenon

SCAFETTA, NICOLA;
2001

Abstract

We argue that a process of social interest is a balance of order and randomness, thereby producing a departure from a stationary diffusion process. The strength of this departure effect vanishes if the order to randomness intensity ratio vanishes, and this property allows us to reveal, although in an indirect way, the existence of a finite order to randomness intensity ratio. We aim at detecting this effect. We introduce a method of statistical analysis alternative to the compression procedures, with which the limitations of the traditional Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) approach are bypassed. We prove that this method makes it possible for us to build up a memory detector, which signals the presence of even very weak memory, provided that this is persistent over large time intervals. We apply the analysis to the study of the teen birth phenomenon and we find that the unmarried teen births are a manifestation of a social process with a memory more intense than that of the married teens. We attempt to give a social interpretation of this effect.
2001
The thermodynamics of social process: the teen birth phenomenon / Scafetta, Nicola; Hamilton, P.; Grigolini, P.. - In: FRACTALS-COMPLEX GEOMETRY PATTERNS AND SCALING IN NATURE AND SOCIETY. - ISSN 0218-348X. - 09:(2001), pp. 193-208. [10.1142/S0218348X0100052X]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11588/592838
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