The paper discusses the problem of an efficient assessment or estimation of wind probabilistic distribution for the quantitative evaluation of wind power generation statistics. In particular, the characteristics of the popular Weibull distribution widely (in fact, uniquely) adopted in the field of wind-speed statistics are recalled and discussed; then, they are compared with the ones of a less popular model, the Log-logistic one. Indeed, this latter model appears to be another natural candidate for the wind statistics modeling, according to the analysis of some field data, which shows significant ldquoheavy tailsrdquo in wind-speed probabilistic distribution for large values of wind speed. A novel function is defined in order to discriminate among the probabilistic models. Numerical results are reported at the aim to highlight the feasibility of the sensitivity analysis for wind farm designer.

Analytical Study of Different Probability Distributions for Wind Speed Related To Power Statistics

CHIODO, ELIO;LAURIA, DAVIDE
2009

Abstract

The paper discusses the problem of an efficient assessment or estimation of wind probabilistic distribution for the quantitative evaluation of wind power generation statistics. In particular, the characteristics of the popular Weibull distribution widely (in fact, uniquely) adopted in the field of wind-speed statistics are recalled and discussed; then, they are compared with the ones of a less popular model, the Log-logistic one. Indeed, this latter model appears to be another natural candidate for the wind statistics modeling, according to the analysis of some field data, which shows significant ldquoheavy tailsrdquo in wind-speed probabilistic distribution for large values of wind speed. A novel function is defined in order to discriminate among the probabilistic models. Numerical results are reported at the aim to highlight the feasibility of the sensitivity analysis for wind farm designer.
9781424425433
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11588/366454
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