We studied a cellular automaton, able to reproduce the landslide frequency-size distributions from catalogues. From the comparison between our synthetic probability distribution and the landslide area probability distribution of three landslide inventories, we estimated the typical size of a single cell of our cellular automaton model to be from 35–100m2, which is important information if we are interested in monitoring a test area. To determine the probability of occurrence of a landslide of size s, we show that it is crucial to get information about the rate at which the system is approaching instability rather than the nature of the trigger. By varying such a driving rate, we find how the probability distribution changes and, in correspondence, how the size and the lifetime of the most probable events evolve. We also introduce a landslide-event magnitude scale based on the driving rate. Large values of the proposed intensity scale are related to landslide events with a fast approach to instability in a long distance of time, while small values are related to landslide events close together in time and approaching instability slowly.

Characteristic scales in landslide modelling

PIEGARI E.;DI MAIO, ROSA;MILANO, LEOPOLDO
2009

Abstract

We studied a cellular automaton, able to reproduce the landslide frequency-size distributions from catalogues. From the comparison between our synthetic probability distribution and the landslide area probability distribution of three landslide inventories, we estimated the typical size of a single cell of our cellular automaton model to be from 35–100m2, which is important information if we are interested in monitoring a test area. To determine the probability of occurrence of a landslide of size s, we show that it is crucial to get information about the rate at which the system is approaching instability rather than the nature of the trigger. By varying such a driving rate, we find how the probability distribution changes and, in correspondence, how the size and the lifetime of the most probable events evolve. We also introduce a landslide-event magnitude scale based on the driving rate. Large values of the proposed intensity scale are related to landslide events with a fast approach to instability in a long distance of time, while small values are related to landslide events close together in time and approaching instability slowly.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11588/355923
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 19
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 17
social impact