Some observations on the prediction of the dynamic parameters of debris flows in pyroclastic deposits in the Campania region of Italy

Over the last 20 years, many tools have been developed for the prediction of the post-failure behaviour of rapid landslides. However, as pointed out by several researchers, knowledge may be improved by the performance of back-analyses using different models and the evaluation of their reliability. This paper reports the back-analysis, conducted using numerical models, of 57 rapid landslides that have occurred in the Campania region. The back-analysis has been performed using the 2-D DAN_W code (version 2003) with two different rheological models: the Voellmy and the frictional models. The latter has been immediately discarded because it did not match the observed data. Instead, using the Voellmy model, the best-fit values of the parameters (friction l and turbulence n) for different types of flow (channelled, un-channelled and mixed flows) have been researched. With these values a parametric study has been carried out on four representative slope profiles of the Campania region, enabling the prediction of runout, velocity and depth of flow (dynamic parameters) of potential debris flows.