Quantitative model for magma degassing and ground deformation (bradyseism) at Campi Flegrei, Italy: implications for future eruptions.

Campi Flegrei (Phlegrean Fields) is an active volcanic center near Naples, Italy. Numerous eruptions have occurred here during the Quaternary, and repeated episodes of slow vertical ground movement (bradyseism) have been documented since Roman times. Here, we present a quantitative model that relates deformation episodes to magma degassing and fracturing at the brittle-ductile transition in a magmatic-hydrothermal environment. The model is consistent with field and laboratory observations and predicts that uplift between 1982 and 1984 was associated with crystallization of similar to 0.83 km(3) of H(2)O-saturated magma at 6 km depth. During crystallization, similar to 6.2 x 10(10) kg of H(2)O and 7.5 x 10(8) kg of CO(2) exsolved from the magma and generated similar to 7 x 10(15) J of mechanical (P Delta V) energy to drive the observed uplift. For comparison, similar to 10(17) J of thermal energy was released during the 18 May 1980 lateral blast at Mount St. Helens.