Definition and Bayes Estimation of Stochastic Safety Index: Application to Cable-Way Point

The aim of the paper is to define a probabilistic methodology for the definition of a stochastic safety index, and to show a possible estimation method based upon Bayesian inference. As an important application of the proposed methodology, the attention is focused upon cable-way plant design. The method was applied to data froma a real cable-way plant, situated at the Department of Electrical Engineering of the University of Palermo. This paper presents and discusses the results of a first series of experimental tests for system safety evaluation. For this purpose, a stochastic index for the braking system is first presented and discussed; then, its Bayesian estimation is developed and its feasibility and efficiency shown, with reference to field data and extensive Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, studies on the robustness of the estimate have been performed with excellent results.