Brief communication: Vent opening at Campi Flegrei – clues from dyke propagation patterns

Forecasting future vent opening position is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards, and is usually based on the spatial density of past vents or other crust weakness indicators. Here, a novel empirical approach inspired by dyke propagation models is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera. Results show that dyke azimuthal direction and propagation length are statistically independent, that azimuth correlates with topographic peaks within 7 km from the caldera centre, and that propagation length exhibits two main peaks at 2 and 4 km. Based on these results, we develop two new vent opening probability maps with maxima well correlating with caldera's structure and recent seismicity.