Rain-induced displacements as a metric for slope hazard assessment

The continuously increase of the number of rainfall-induced landslides and their sever impact on the infrastructure, human lives and environment requires providing new technics for proper assessment of these natural hazards. This research provides two probabilistic models for assessing rainfall-induced landslide displacements considering Miscano slope as a case study. The first one correlates the yearly cumulative horizontal displacements with the distance from the slope toe, while the second incorporates both the distance from the toe and the yearly cumulative rainfall. Based on these two probabilistic models, hazard curves, representing the probabilistic distribution of rainfall-induced displacements, have been derived for different locations along the landslide. In addition, fragility curves have been developed, correlating the yearly cumulative rainfall to the probability of exceeding a specific displacement threshold (1 cm in this study). The outcomes of this analysis serve as input for the vulnerability assessment of the affected infrastructures crossing the slope, within the broader framework of risk assessment.