Real estate market trends in Italy: the impact of High-Speed Rail on property prices

This study fills a significant research gap by analysing the impact of High-Speed Rail (HSR) on various segments of the Italian real estate market, beyond the more widely studied residential market, extending to commercial, industrial, and manufacturing properties. The methodology is based on the analysis of a panel dataset of 13 stations from the "Grandi Stazioni" project from 2006 to 2022, applying Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). The originality of this study lies in the observation of the effect of HSR on multiple real estate market segments across the entire Italian network, making a direct comparison with other European HSRs and with China. The results show that, in line with studies, the presence of HSR increases the value of residential properties, while the effect on commercial property prices varies, as they depend more on economic than social factors. Shops and warehouses benefit significantly from better connections, but house prices vary more based on proximity to the station or other intermodal hubs. Property values decrease by 5 % when HSR stations are located in or adjacent to commercial areas, which may indicate a shift in the market. Warehouse values increase by 5.2 %, demonstrating greater demand for high-quality logistics space, while laboratories values decrease by 1.6 %. These findings provide some important policy suggestions for improving investment in high-speed rail, including local land use planning for property zoning around stations, and for considering improving physical accessibility to stations and strategic urban planning.