Mapping urban settlement dynamics: the case of Sri Lankans in four Italian cities

This study explores the spatio-temporal dynamics of Sri Lankan settlement in four Italian metropolitan cities – Milan, Rome, Naples, and Catania – over the period 2011-2021. Employing high‐resolution spatial grid (100×100 meters), we compute a Location Quotients (LQs) for the Sri Lankan population and examine its variation via Geographically Weighted Ridge Regression (GWRR) in each census year. Our models integrate structural, demographic, and socio‐economic dimensions to capture localised influences on ethnic concentration, while a ridge penalty mitigates multicollinearity. Diagnostic metrics (AICc, Moran’s I) confirm a generally adequate fit with moderate positive spatial autocorrelation in residuals. Results reveal clear north-south contrasts and evolving settlement patterns. Temporal comparisons indicate relative stability in Rome and Naples, contrasted by significant process of redistribution in Milan and Catania. By integrating fine‐scale spatial data with GWRR, this work advances methods for studying non‐stationary residential segregation patterns and offers insights for context‐sensitive urban policy aimed at promoting spatial integration.