Climate Change and Urban Open Spaces: A Spatial-Statistical Analysis of Adaptive Capacity in Naples

weather events are natural phenomena, occurring at consid- erable distances in time, and have always been part of human experience and people’s historical memory. These events are characterized as rare at a particu- lar place and time of year, with unusual characteristics in terms of magnitude, location, timing, or extent. Over the past 10 years, we have been witnessing these phenomena more conspicuously in terms of frequency and intensity, annually reporting at least one phenomenon that emerges on a global scale and connotes itself as “the phenomenon of the year,” sometimes earning a familiar household name, such as Charon or Katrina. These epochal events, nevertheless, although surprising in terms of magnitude, do not come unexpectedly. Not surprisingly 2024 was the hottest year on record since the pre-industrial age, with the global average temperature reaching +1.54 °C, even exceeding the limit identified as an extreme not to be surpassed in the Paris Agreements. Urban open spaces, both green and built-up, play a key role in improving thermal comfort and soil perme- ability, contributing to reducing energy consumption. Differing from most of the studies focused on just one of the two main issues affecting urban areas (energy and climate change), this work considers the open space system as the driver to strengthen the adaptive capacity of cities. The work aims to classify the urban area according to the relationships among the climatic, physical, environmental, and social characteristics of the fabrics where open spaces are located and the inner features of these built environment elements. Spatial-statistical analysis based on a cell grid is developed and applied to the study area of Naples. This paper represents a first step in a larger PRIN-funded research project ‘Definition of a handbook of guidelines for implementing climate neutrality by improving the effectiveness of ecosystem services in rural and urban areas’, aimed at defining an energy-efficient decision support tool based on urban and open space characteristics.