A model to define a real estate investment risk index for the administrative municipalities of Naples

Real estate redevelopment processes represent an important avenue for achieving sustainable development goals, but at the same time, they pose complex and opaque decision-making problems. Most existing risk assessment tools involve aggregate-scale analysis or require knowledge of extensive project financial data, which is often not yet available under ex-ante evaluation conditions. The aim of the work is to define a specific index through a spatial decision support system based on an innovative model that enables public and private entities to conduct effective ex-ante risk assessment at a sub-municipal territorial scale for public-private partnership risks. The proposed model adopts the flexibility of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique and the GIS system's ability to clearly display the spatial distribution of real estate risk.